#1 27-12-2018 07:21:51

Date d'inscription: 27-11-2018
Messages: 48

Does a hot start lead to a good season

White Demar Dotson Jersey , or is it just a fluke? Fitzmagic has taken the league by storm. Ryan Fitzpatrick followed up his insane week one performance versus the New Orleans Saints with another tremendous performance against the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. But he’s not the only quarterback who is off to a hot start. Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is also lighting up the league. But in Tampa Bay Fitzpatrick’s stunning play has raised debates and important questions alike. Should Fitzpatrick keep the starting quarterback job? For how long? How long can he keep up this play? Is there any historical precedent for this? If so, can that tell us anything about how Fitzpatrick might play going forward? Can a hot start lead to a good season, or is it just a fluke?It’s a question Football Outsiders and Justis Mosqueda of Optimum Scouting both asked, and they both approached the problem in a similar manner and came out with similar results - by taking defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) (Fitz has 478) and adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) (Fitz is at 15.3). Football Outsiders (FBO) states that only Tom Brady in 2011 has ever gotten off to a hotter start. Of the 18 players that made the list that started somewhat similarly, most are in the Hall of Fame, or will be. It includes Brady, Peyton Manning, John Elway, Jim Kelly, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, and guys like Drew Bledsoe and Donovan McNabb. But it’s important to note that most of these seasons by these guys don’t even come close to what Fitzpatrick has done.Mosqueda had this to say:But what do these numbers tell us about how Fitzpatrick might play the rest of season? FBO says:So there doesn’t seem to be a great analog for Fitzpatrick, as the only real journeyman to ever do anything similar to what he’s doing is...Brad Johnson, who did it with Washington in 1999. This Bucs defense is not that. Despite that, Mosqueda writes:Fitzpatrick’s career average AY/A is 6.16 http://www.authenticstampabaybuccaneers … rry-jersey , and has only one other season above 7 AY/A, with Houston in 2014. Despite his averages, Fitzpatrick has placed himself well in continuing to be one of the better quarterbacks in the league this season. It’s also important to remember that it’s not just Fitzpatrick and Mahomes lighting it up. The whole league is having success passing, though of course to a smaller degree:So what can we take away from all this? First, that Fitzpatrick is doing something truly unprecedented for the type of player he is, and is standing out even in a bonkers passing environment. Even if it’s impossible for him to sustain this level of play, he is still more likely to play better than he ever has before, and that bodes extremely well for Tampa Bay’s playoff chances. The NFC is loaded though, so the Bucs will probably have to win 9 of their remaining 14 games to finish 11-5 to feel comfortable making the playoffs.Fantasy Football: Who to Start, Sit and Sleepers for Week 5 The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears are both on byes, so there’s no fantasy football wave to try and ride against the Bucs defense or by rolling with quarterback, Mitch Trubisky.Week 4 of the NFL brought a lot of fun as usual, but we saw guys like the aforementioned Chicago quarterback rise to the top of the fantasy stats like never before.So, how did our own projections do?QUARTERBACK (0/3): Ouch. We took some chances, and unfortunately they just didn’t pay off. It always seems Philip Rivers will disappoint when you start to count on him http://www.authenticstampabaybuccaneers … pet-jersey , and while he did come in at QB14, it’s not starting position scoring. Derek Carr responded to his first benching of the season by putting up QB4 numbers and 32-points. Eli Manning is the eternal sleeper, and he just didn’t wake up this past weekend as he failed to crack the Top-20.RUNNING BACK (3/3): A little bit of redemption with this group. Ezekiel Elliott finished the past week at RB2 with his 33-points and had a five point gap between himself and the next highest scoring back. Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen made good on our projection that the second of the two would be the man to play against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Cohen finished with 30-points - good enough for RB5 - while Howard had just three.RECEIVERS (2/3): Dallas Cowboys fans may have been a bit offended seeing our advice to sit all of their receivers, but the advice proved sound as the highest scoring wide receiver - Cole Beasley - landed at WR53 for Week 4 with just nine points. Geoff Swaim was able to outscore them all, but still didn’t land high enough for us to regret the advice. Meanwhile, Travis Kelce rewarded the start advice with a TE4 performance and once again we had the right team for our tight end sleeper, just not the right player. Atlanta’s Logan Paulsen came through for his team while Austin Hooper landed at TE27.DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS (3/3): We got the defensive battle we needed when the Jaguars and Jets faced off as the first defense was labeled our starter for the week and the second was our sleeper. Jacksonville came in at D/ST7 and the Jets were D/ST9. Can’t get much more right than that. Unfortunately for Broncos fans, their defense also made good on our projection as their Monday Night letdown sat them at D/ST24 for Week 4.TOTAL (67%): We’re steadily over the 65% mark for each week, meaning the majority of our projections are landing true. Quarterback had been a stable position of projection coming into Week 4, but a goose-egg may shake our confidences a bit heading into Week 5. Bold predictions in the running back and defensive positions proved fruitful.On now, with the current week’s projections!QUARTERBACKSCharles LeClaire-USA TODAY SportsSTART: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs Atlanta Falcons)The Falcons defense has been decimated by injury, and opposing quarterbacks are the biggest benefactors. The Steelers won’t miss Le’Veon Bell this week and ‘Big Ben’ will have a big day.SIT: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (vs Los Angeles Rams)I don’t know if there’s a much worse situation for Russell Wilson to go into from a fantasy standpoint. The offense just isn’t all that good, and the defense isn’t either. Losing Earl Thomas ahead of facing the Rams is terrible too. Wilson is taking his team with a compromised defense Youth Carlton Davis Jersey , a less than stellar supporting cast overall, and going up against a team which sees him twice every year and has one of the best defenses in the league.SLEEPER: Alex Smith, Washington Redskins (@ New Orleans Saints)I’m not sure if the Saints will ever get their defense figured out at this point. It felt like this was a year they’d actually be solid, but they’ve underwhelmed up to this point.Still, the Redskins offense hasn’t exactly been a powerhouse themselves. This week could be different though, and Smith has a few weapons he could use to exploit this defensive unit.RUNNING BACKSMark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY SportsSTART: Chris Thompson, Washington Redskins (@ New Orleans Saints)Doubling down on our quarterback sleeper pick, this running back should benefit greatly in this match-up.If wide receivers like Jamison Crowder can get some chunk plays, it’ll open up room for Thompson to operate underneath and give him lanes to run through as well.SIT: T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Kansas City Chiefs)I know. He’s starting in place of the often injured Leonard Fournette. Still, the Jaguars picked Fournette in the Top-10 in 2017 for a reason. The reason is Yeldon could never produce consistently.SLEEPER: Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers (vs Oakland Raiders)I know this isn’t a division match-up, but I just feel like the Chargers will want to beat the Raiders a little bit more than they would a lot of other teams.Ekeler has paired nicely with fellow running back Melvin Gordon, and this is a week I feel like the team could really look to exploit the benefit each brings to the field.RECEIVERS (WR/TE)Brad Penner-USA TODAY SportsSTART: Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants (@ Carolina Panthers)He’ll score his first touchdown of the year. He’ll score his first two White Peyton Barber Jersey , even.SIT: Austin Hooper, Atlanta Falcons (@ Pittsburgh Steelers)The predictable arrival of Calvin Ridley and the presence of both Falcons running backs will only take Matt Ryan’s eyes off of Hooper. Hard hitting linebackers won’t help matters.SLEEPER: Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans (@ Buffalo Bills)Davis was one of the best prospects coming out of college two years ago, and he’s starting to show why. In this one, fantasy owners are going to need to be patient, but as the Bills defense is on the field longer and longer, Davis is going to come up with some clutch receptions at the end of this one.DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMSRon Chenoy-USA TODAY SportsSTART: Denver Broncos (@ New York Jets)This is sort of a sleeper pick, because it’s not so much how Denver plays defense, but more about how the Jets play offense.SIT: Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Kansas City Chiefs)If there’s a defense out there which can stifle the Chiefs’ offense, it’s this one. But they won’t stifle them enough to make you happy you started them in fantasy.SLEEPER: Tennessee Titans (@ Buffalo Bills)I’m going to have an itchy finger looking to click start on every team facing the Bills offense this season. Including this one.

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#2 26-12-2019 14:56:37

Cecil H
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Date d'inscription: 26-12-2019
Messages: 1

Re: Does a hot start lead to a good season

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#3 09-03-2020 06:33:28

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Date d'inscription: 06-03-2020
Messages: 14

Re: Does a hot start lead to a good season

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